Smart Politics

The Republicans have done it again. Those of you that know me know that I’m a pretty loyal Democrat (to be honest, I’m really more of an anti-conservative who is frustrated with the lack of choices in U.S. politics). The Republicans aren’t popular right now. The Senate and House are both, according to most political experts, up for grabs on November 7. Unfortunately, I don’t have confidence that the Democrats are even going to take back the Senate OR the House. Why? While I strongly disagree with most Republicans on policy (particularly on social issues – who cares if John wants to marry Mark instead of Marcia?), I have tremendous respect for their ability to play politics intelligently.

Case in point #1: The November 2004 elections. Utah, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Georgia, and Kentucky, Michigan, Mississippi, Montana, North Dakota, and, most importantly, Ohio, all had same-sex marriage bans on the ballot. Primarily Republican states, with a couple swing states in Michigan and Ohio. What happened? Christian conservatives rushed to the voting polls, Bush took 8 of the 10 states, including Ohio, which he won by around 118,000 votes out of a total of 5.6 million cast (51%-49% over Kerry). With it, he took the 20 electoral votes and thus the election (Kerry would have won if he carried Ohio). To make things worst, the same-sex marriage bans passed in all 10 states.

More recent case in point: Read this article. While I don’t know all the details, there’s a stem-cell research initiative on the state ballot, and in response to Democrats rolling out a national celebrity in Michael J. Fox, the Republicans have returned the punch with state celebrities. Kurt Warner…MVP of Superbowl XXXIII or some other Roman numerals. Jeff Suppan…MVP of the NLCS that just ended on Thursday. These guys are local heroes campaigning against a local initiative. I’m not sure what the poll numbers looked like before these ad campaigns, but I’d be willing to bet my business school salary (all $0 of it) that the initiative doesn’t pass.

Well played, Republicans.